Social Security checks might get bigger than expected next year. But there’s bad news, too

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for next year could reach 3.9%, according to a new report.

The latest monthly prediction from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is its highest yet this year—notably higher than the 2.8% increase that it had predicted during its three previous cycles. That previous figure would have kept the COLA flat from 2025. 

The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the official 2027 COLA increase in October. At 3.9%, the average benefits check would rise from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33—an $81.17 jump.

The nonprofit TSCL stresses that even a 3.9% jump might not offset inflation’s effect on essentials like housing, groceries, and Medicare. 

“For retirees living on fixed incomes, the costs that matter most, especially healthcare, housing, utilities, and insurance, continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said in a statement.

Social Security beneficiaries are increasingly being squeezed

Earlier this year, the TSCL found that 57.6% of American seniors had skipped a healthcare service or product in the last 12 months to save money.

Dental, vision, and hearing services were most commonly cut—Medicare Part B doesn’t offer any coverage toward these areas of care. 

Benton continued: “Many seniors are telling us the same thing: As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable. The average senior already lives on much less than younger Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and our supporters constantly tell us they feel like they’re falling farther and farther behind.”

How was the COLA prediction calculated? 

The TSCL uses a statistical model to make monthly COLA predictions. 

The model pulls from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate. 

Current COLA predictions vary. For instance, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson has predicted a 4.2% rise, CNBC reports. Last month, she had predicted a 3.2% COLA, but increased the number based on April’s CPI data.