Spring Forecast 2026 – what small businesses should expect
By Anna Jordan on Small Business UK - Advice and Ideas for UK Small Businesses and SMEs
The Spring Forecast is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is set to provide its latest fiscal forecast, which the Chancellor will respond to.
First of all, don’t expect any new policy – Reeves has stressed in the past that there is to be one formal fiscal announcement per year in the form of the Autumn Budget. There won’t be any assessment of the government’s performance against fiscal rules, either. The Chancellor has said that she wants to be speaking for less than half an hour.
For the first time in its 16-year history, the OBR will not publish an assessment of how the government is progressing in meeting its own fiscal rules.
Unlike the lateness of last year’s Autumn Budget, this is the earliest Spring Forecast on record. This makes it easier for businesses and accountants to plan before the new tax year.
Previous announcements may be touched upon, such as the end of the freeze of fuel duty in September 2026. However, with the crisis unfolding in the Middle East, fuel prices could very well rise. Perhaps it’s too early to say, but this could lead to the freeze being extended further.
On the subject of cars, Reeves could confirm the electric vehicle Benefit in Kind increase for company car drivers from 3 per cent to 4 per cent. The change is set to come in on April 6, 2026.
The government reported its greatest ever surplus in January. The public sector recorded a £30.4 billion surplus, according to ONS figures, which is double the surplus and £6.3 billion higher than the OBR’s November forecast. That said, the surplus tends to be higher at this time of year because of an increase in tax receipts.
Although some will be relieved at a ‘non-event’ financial announcement, small business owners want some reassurance that conditions will improve. Julie Fisher, UK CEO at Simply Business, said: “The tax burden on businesses is at a century-long high, compounded by rising energy and supply costs. Our data shows that 82% of small business owners saw costs surge over the past year. While SMEs are reluctant to pass these increases onto consumers – who are understandably price-sensitive in an ongoing cost-of-living crisis – the pressure is forcing many into survival mode.
“Behind these numbers are real people under real pressure. Almost half of the small business owners we surveyed say financial pressures are directly impacting their mental health. Between looming Business Rates changes, the administrative weight of Making Tax Digital, and frequent policy shifts, long-term planning has become impossible. This environment doesn’t just stifle growth; it prevents our most vital, innovative community from reaching its full potential.”
The Spring Forecast 2026
When is the Spring Forecast 2026?
The Spring Forecast will be on March 3.
When will it start?
Though there’s no set start time, the BBC says it’s likely to be after 12:30pm.
Where will it be broadcast?
The announcement will be broadcast live on the BBC and on parliamentlive.tv.
Read more
Autumn Budget 2025 and how it affects small businesses – Here is a round-up of the key announcements for small businesses from the Autumn Budget 2025
The post Spring Forecast 2026 – what small businesses should expect appeared first on Small Business UK.
