Is AI sabotaging the ‘September Surge’ in hiring this year?

For the past several years, the U.S. labor market has experienced what experts call the “September Surge.”

The period between Labor Day and Halloween has historically been considered by HR professionals as the ideal time for companies to find the best and brightest new talent and for candidates to apply for and secure that dream role. With summer vacations over, many companies push to fill any open roles around October and November before business slows down for the holidays. The September Surge also neatly coincides with the start of Q4 and corporate priorities to spend any unused budget before the end of the fiscal year. 

But while strong consumer spending, business investments, and job numbers are cause for cautious economic optimism, political uncertainty is leading some to wonder whether we will see a September Surge again this year—or if 2024 is set to be a September Sink. And then there is also the impact of artificial intelligence. 

Thanks to the increased use of generative AI, the job market looks a bit different for both companies and candidates this year. Because of AI, the number of job seekers applying for roles has increased exponentially, and many companies are finding it difficult to process the higher volume of applications. Simultaneously, many employers are using AI-powered applicant tracking systems (ATS) to assess candidates. 

Here’s how AI is impacting the chances of a September Surge, and how companies can ensure that the hiring process remains ethical and transparent in the age of AI.

By the numbers

In September 2023, the U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs, nearly double that of August 2023. Based on this trend, we can expect another boost in new job postings this month, although likely more muted than in previous years. 

Where the real surge will take place is in the volume of applicants. So while companies may have fewer roles available than in previous years, hiring managers will likely be assessing more applicants than ever. With the use of AI, job seekers can significantly reduce the time taken to apply, allowing them to apply for more roles than they would without the aid of technology. In 2023, applicants applied to approximately 15% more roles than they did in 2022. As AI use is even more prevalent this year, we expect application numbers to be even higher, particularly in September. 

Hiring in the age of AI 

Today, workers can use GenAI-powered résumé builders, job search tools, and chatbots to help land their next big role. Generative AI can be a helpful support tool for candidates to craft a résumé. Using AI, candidates can also ensure they are thoroughly prepared for interviews by developing thoughtful answers to anticipated questions. 

However, because so many job seekers today use AI-powered tools to write their cover letters and résumés, many applications end up looking the same to recruiters. Plus, these tools have led to a notable rise in the number of applications that hiring managers receive. At my organization, we have experienced a 75% increase in the volume of job applications this year. We attribute much of this surge to AI, and have reason to believe that many candidates are robo-applying to numerous positions at once. Many employers have also noticed a rise in the number of fake candidates applying for jobs.

Of course, employers have access to AI as well, and more and more of them are using it in the hiring process, typically through various ATS tools that assess and sort applicants. Unfortunately, research suggests that these tools can make it harder for workers, especially those from marginalized backgrounds, to get noticed—and hired.  

How companies can adapt

Fortunately, there are steps teams can take to distinguish which candidates are the most qualified and which would be the best fit for their organization.

With many applications starting to look the same, hiring managers can seek candidates who stand out, whose application materials include specific examples, demonstrate an authentic personality, and show a sincere interest in the job. A job seeker’s genuine interest in a role is more important today than their writing samples, which can easily be AI-generated. 

Many companies, including my own, have implemented processes to weed out applicants who robo-apply for roles. For instance, at the bottom of the descriptions of our roles we ask the candidate to enter a certain keyword or phrase, and to place that word or phrase somewhere specific in their application. If a candidate has thoroughly read the job description, then they’ll know to enter the phrase when applying. We then filter applications based on those who have followed our instructions. 

To avoid fake candidates, hiring managers can use live video interviews more frequently throughout the screening process. Our hiring managers use live calls and a range of detailed questions to gauge each candidate’s enthusiasm and conviction for the role. It is also important to train interviewers to assess applicant responses and look out for certain syntax and jargon that is indicative of AI-generated answers.  

While consistency and structure are key for maintaining fairness in interviews, it can be helpful to allow for some natural follow-up questions that dive deeper into a candidate’s work experience. Surface-level questions are easy for candidates to respond to using AI-generated answers (even during video interviews), so ask follow-up questions that go into more detail about their skills and experience. 

And employers should remember that they can still find promising job candidates through more traditional techniques, such as by implementing an effective referral program and incentivizing their workforce to spread the word about open positions.

How to ensure fairness, authenticity, and diversity 

Without the right checks and balances in place, there is significant risk of bias negatively impacting the hiring process. Without transparent, ethical use of AI by candidates and companies alike, there is a risk that the hiring process can be compromised, either by giving unfair advantage, or by candidates embellishing their skills and experience. 

To address this, teams should discuss creating guidelines for how candidates can utilize AI during the hiring process. And they should audit how AI-powered tools impact their hiring decisions to ensure that various algorithms are not inserting bias into their process. Companies will need to continue to evolve their application processes to differentiate between human-generated and AI-generated content and evaluation criteria to focus more on assessing real competencies. 

With more widespread use of AI, we could see a leveling up in both competency standards and the baseline for job applications, as more and more candidates optimize their résumés and interview preparation. This will drive more sophisticated interview and work assessment techniques, and more automation and efficiencies in hiring processes overall. It could also lead to a more skilled workforce in the future, but it may make the application process feel less personal, with technology taking center stage over human interaction. 

Whether this September is a sink or a surge, as HR leaders it’s up to us to champion innovation and transparency in our hiring processes, and to keep the candidates’ experience front and center, regardless of how technology evolves.